Apple on the cusp of releasing a tablet

The writers of that article are mystified for no reason. All you have to know is how Apple operates. How it is they do what they do. I have not read, seen or heard any rumors yet. I don't need to.

They almost always build on past successes. The tablet won't be so new and innovative that people reel in wonderment. Sorry. But what you can count on, is that it'll build on touch-screen technology that was developed for the iPhone and iPod touch. It'll take that same idea, and will make it larger. It's going to be 'big is the new small'.

Next thing you can count on: This thing will be a vehicle for iPhone like APPS. Small showcase-like widgets... kinda like, um, WIDGETS that we see on our desktops, but this time, they'll look like iPhone apps. That's really going to be the only difference. It'll be "there's an app for that" meets widget. They're basically the same thing anyway.

Functionality... the interface will be all virtual. The keyboard will be a touch-screen keyboard, like the iPhone. All the movements will be like that... finger spreading and paging through, and so forth. I think a major part of the interface will still be some variation of "Cover Flow", except with rounded rectangular buttons like the iPhone interface.

The first iteration is always going to be proof of concept, and so there will be two or three interesting apps. First off, because this is what they do: they'll somehow redefine the iTunes store. Next, they'll make an inroad into some other media. My guess is, they'll begin selling TEXT books, not just audio, and the iTablet, or TabletMac, or iTab, or whatever the fuck will be like a KINDLE. There may or may be an alliance with some outfit like Barnes and Noble, that remains to be seen. Maybe a failing Newspaper.

Let's see, there will have to be something else showoffy, but not fully developed. If I had to guess: game platform. Something Wii-like, with lots of turning and reorienting the screen. Maybe rolling a ball through a maze into a hole, something like that. Just taking iPhone game apps to the next level.

Then there will be something networking-related. Apple loves that stuff... so you'll wave, or "kiss" your iPhone or iPod touch to the tablet and update it, or transfer data... two tablets together? again, some sort of kiss, or fist-bump and then they'll share data. If the iPhone is about making phone calls to each other, the tablet will probably be more about skyping and videoconferencing. So an integral webcam. This is what'll sell it to kids. Forget sexting and texting. If they can get Skype to work from a mobile tablet, Apple will score. Of course it won't work yet. It'll almost work. It won't work until --hands?-- right, Gen. 3.

Battery life will be impressive, but won't live up to the hype at first. They'll say something about how friggin' GREEN these tablets are... They'll be wireless, and maybe conceived in such a way that most of the storage will be remote. I've always speculated that Apple has really wanted to find a way to get people to pay for disc space. They don't want you to simply download, they want you to download to storage space that you rent from them.

If I had to guess the paradigm that mystifies the writers of the article, I'd say it'll be slightly more about disposable entertainment data. Meaning rentals or subscriptions... magazines, books, newspapers, in addition to music and movies and TV. Something you take with you when commuting to make reading the paper more impressive to everyone around you.

Those are my predictions. We shall see if I'm a true swami or just a pretender.

The guy was speculating about a possible built-in mini-projector. I saw a commercial yesterday for a phone that did that. He beamed a trailer of some movie onto the wall. (I'd probably be beaming Megan Fox, but the principle would be the same.) Pretty cool, but what's that do for battery life?

I guess a projector has pretty good school and business applications, but it's weak when it comes to the "showoff" factor. Like, oh here, let me project a trailer onto a wall, where it'll look crappy and shake, instead of looking at it in lush hi-def on the screen. Know what I mean?

I think Apple thinks bigger than that. They can see trends like: books = dead. Magazines = dead. Newspapers = dead. Something like a tablet could breathe new life into these industries. I ask myself, self, would it be cool to read a tablet-version Flyfishing or Gun magazine, instead of getting the printed one? And the answer is yes. The internet is already where people get most of their printed info... sex it up with a tablet and a flip-book interface? Or make it Kindle-like? I think it's win.

Where it could fail, and fail big, is price point. Make it the price of a MacBook, and you kill it. It's gotta be $500 tops, like a netbook, or forget it. It'll crash like the Newton.

I think a Kindle-like thing would be great. The issue is portability and price. The iPhone's screen is too small, and yet the size of the unit itself makes it quite portable and thus it gets used. If Apple could do some kind of fold-out screen and keep the tablet portable (pocketable), that would really break new ground. But certainly a tablet device, at least in principle, seems like a good idea. But it could simply find itself an orphan as the mini-laptops (netbooks) become more popular. We'll see how this shakes out. But inherently output devices (whether iPods or tablets) are only as good as they can accept input. And a tablet device without a functional keyboard is always going to be severely constrained. Price, as you say, will be crucial, and it could be crucial because a tablet will have to compete against netbooks. If so, expect the maximum amount of superficial "gee-whiz" stuff to be put into any tablet that Apple markets.

What we have coming from Apple since at least the iMac is almost a new category. It's "fashion electronics." An honest discussion about any new tablet has to range beyond how supposedly useful they are, although those who talk about that aspect are often just using it as a cover for having their heads turned by the fashion or gee-whiz aspects of it. There is perhaps nothing more revolutionary than what a Kindle (or next generation Kindle) can do: give you access to a world of books. But in our content-depleted culture, it will be the widgets and finger-spreading interface that will capture the attention, not that you have instant access to Moby Dick.

Conditions under which I would buy an Apple tablet:

1) I was not committed to a monthly fee for internet access or anything else unless it was my choice.
2) The cost was no great than $350.00. I can get a netbook for around that if I want.
3) There are no Nazi-like restrictions on what software or Widgets I can buy for it.
4) There is some kind of fold-out functional keyboard, not an on-screen one.

1. Could be possible
2. I don't think it will be that cheap.
3. There will be nazi-like restrictions.
4. Forget it.

Oh yeah, if a tablet has crap hanging off of it like a keyboard, forget it. That defeats the whole idea. My issue is not that there will BE an onscreen keyboard, my issue is always whether it WORKS or not. You can't have those things if they don't work. they have to be balls-on accurate. And they're not on the iPhone. I was also on a redbox last night renting "District 9"... and the onscreen keyboard was so terribly calibrated, that I'd hit an M... I mean my finger was right on the big ass M button, and it typed an O. That shit is unacceptable.

A Newton-like handwriting recognition program... provided they could get it to work, would also be an acceptable input. But again, if it was constantly confused, and made too many errors, fuck it. I don't care if they have to devote 3 gigs of storage to handwriting recognition software in order for it to work. If it doesn't work, it's pointless.

I think it's Apple, so the whole tablet will be about milking the user every which way. A contract for internet access, for downloads, for whatever.

As for the Nazi-like restrictions. This was the devil Apple unleashed by going OpenSource. The upside is, there WON'T be restrictions on all those squillions of apps. What there WILL be, is a climate where none of those apps is worth a damn. It'll be like widgets. Spinning gears and following eyes will be 99% of the market. Intellectual Everests for the geek elite. With 1% of apps actually being useful, and which will be expensive. And then they'll be buggy.

The most important thing about a tablet will be screen size. That's going to open up the idea of watching movies or tv on the thing. Or reading virtual books or magazines on it. The iPhone is too small for that. A tablet makes that stuff make sense. You can't turn a laptop screen vertical to portrait and read a page. With a tablet you'll be able to. That's going to open up the kindle-like aspect of it. If they were REALLY smart, they'd do TWO screens, have it close and open like a book with facing pages, where you could turn the thing, and be in laptop mode, or turn it portrait and have a virtual book or newspaper. That would actually rock. I'd buy that.

I think that's a fair assessment, smithz. What Swami predicts (which seems reasonable to me) and what I want are often two different things. But the show-off factor will probably be enough to initially overcome some of the drawback of what will arguably be something in the 8" x 10" size. The fact is, that's not the same kind of "take anywhere" portability of an iPhone. And if you have to lug around something, it makes more sense to lug around something with a functional keyboard. I don't deem the onscreen keyboards as anything but a kludge. I expect Apple could help invigorate this category of computer and then Blackberry or somebody else will swoop in and make it less expensive and more practical.

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Oh yeah, if a tablet has crap hanging off of it like a keyboard, forget it. That defeats the whole idea. My issue is not that there will BE an onscreen keyboard, my issue is always whether it WORKS or not.

I think the fold-out or tray-out keyboards of the Blackberry and others phones are so much easier to use. The point is not to defeat the idea of easy keyboard entry. No doubt you can do a make-shift onscreen keyboard, but we're no longer talking about the iPhone where text messaging small bits of information is usually all you do. A tablet should be capable of full and efficient text entry or it's a no-go for me. I'd rather lug around a netbook or small notebook.

And I think handwriting recognition has proved to be another idea that looks good on paper, but typing is so much easier and faster.

As you say, a larger screen size does indeed open up new possibilities. And there's no reason you couldn't take a laptop screen and turn it vertical. I foresee some other company taking the best of netbooks and tablets and combining them rather than forcing the consumer to accept unnecessary limitations. There's a keyboard tucked away if you need it, but you can also just use it as a touchscreen. I think Microsoft had a prototype of something like that. The touchscreen can work fine for navigating in those situations where having a mouse isn't practical. Kudos to Apple for developing this. But when it comes to higher bandwidth input, a touchscreen keyboard doesn't work as well for serious data input.

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That's going to open up the kindle-like aspect of it. If they were REALLY smart, they'd do TWO screens, have it close and open like a book with facing pages, where you could turn the thing, and be in laptop mode, or turn it portrait and have a virtual book or newspaper. That would actually rock. I'd buy that.

That's what the DS's do now. That would also be a way to maximize the utility, such as it exists, in a touchscreen keyboard. If the two halves could be clamshelled so that the keyboard was flat on a surface (your lap) and the other half was tilted up, the lower screen could function as a keyboard. You could also lay the whole thing flat to treat the screen as one. If the seem between the two screen is negligible, they could combine into one large screen, thus the whole device potentially could fold-away to something truly portable. Then you'd be talking something quite remarkable.

I see a lot of people riding the subway using tablet like devices to read everything from business reports to books and newspapers. It truly will be a device to save the demise of magazines and newspapers.

The most interesting ones look similar to these Tabletkiosk devices. What they do for the reader is the ability to enlarge the text for easy reading. Newspaper and Magazine corporations should be pumping money into perfecting them for the sake of their own survival.

Those tablet PC's are cool, Rico, but at a starting price of $1795...ouch. It sounds like people are paying more for something that does less than a laptop. You pay more for the privilege of no keyboard. No wonder these things haven't taken off yet. What people are already doing is reading the news online....with their laptops. And most browsers will allow you to easily magnify the text or the whole page. What an Apple tablet needs is a lot of the gee-widgets stuff that thalo talked about to sort of hide a tablet's deficiencies compared to a laptop and turn it into an entertainment (twidling) device. Or you can do what I've talked about. You somehow make a larger screen portable.

That is what I am seeing on the subway. They are not exactly like what I linked. Less sophisticated. Literally just a device to read text. They are set up vertical too instead of a horizontal format. Like a sheet of paper.

What they need is a supersized iPod Touch like device.

Rico, besides the internet, what I think killed newspapers is when they switched over to the “environmentally sensitive” inks that never dried and cause black fingerprints to appear wherever you touched.

When asked 3 out of 5 people say they stopped reading newspapers because the ink gets every where.

I think I found what I have been seeing on the subway. The devices are being called eReaders.

Here is another by a company called Skiff. Looks like Skiff was developed by Hearst Publishing. It actually looks pretty cool.

eBook Reader. That's a good selection of low-priced models. At first glance, the Kindle 2 doesn't look to bad. It's $279.00. I'd like to see one firsthand.

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When asked 3 out of 5 people say they stopped reading newspapers because the ink gets every where.

You've just taken over Zogby's job.

Rico, I don't know if you had already pointed this one out, but I was just looking at a Best Buy advertising insert and they had the Sony Reader Pocket Edition for $179.00. (Basically the same price as the Amazon link.) It has a 5" display with 3 different font sizes. I'll try to stop by Best Buy and check one out firsthand. But the price range is certainly getting there. $500 for a book reader is just nonsense. The Sony 6" touchscreen version goes for $279.00.

From the reviews at Amazon, it seems the portability factor is much in its favor. Spending more for a Kindle will get you apparently better software, the ability to read pdf's much better, and the ability to search text and highlight passages. But apparently the actually quality of the text onscreen is better in the cheaper Sony device...and that's no small thing.

I don't think there is much future in ebook-readers. These devices are made to read ebooks and that's it. Technology will catch up and somehow netbook, tablet and ebook-reader will become one. A device that can display ebooks only is pretty limited for me. But that's just my point of view. Apple could crush the competition if the price is right.

Anyway, in my hometown i see so many iphones, it seems to have taken over the whole city. And it isn't cheap. Hmmm...

BN, what were your experiences regarding the speed of the reader? I read somewhere that turning the (virtual) page needed several seconds. First because the e-ink-display is pretty slow and second because there obviously isn't that high-powered CPU inside the machine.

Smithz the Skiff linked above is more than just for eBooks. You will be able to subscribe to hundreds of Newspapers and Magazines.

I think eventually something in the form factor of the Skiff will be what a tablet becomes. It will play movies too.

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BN, what were your experiences regarding the speed of the reader?

I don't own one yet, smithz. But I'll probably stop by Best Buy tonight on the way home and do a little hands-on demonstration. I agree that a one-trick-pony device such as an eBook reader is probably doomed in the market. But a CHEAP one-trick-pony does make some sense, at least until the netbooks come way down in price.

I'll be sure to test how long it takes to "turn" a page.